Last winter I was approached by Ed Koehane, VP of Scotia Private Banking, who inquired in my be interest in playing with him in the Wayne Gretzky Classic.  With a renewed focus on golf I thought that this would be a great deal of fun.  I needed to have a handicap less than 20 which required me to build a card as I had not kept one in years.   So I rounded up my score cards from 2008 and played enough games in 2009 to register a handicap and I was ready to go.

As June approached I started to realize this was not any golf get-together.  Rumours started to spread about the event being televised on the Golf Channel and TSN, then I heard thatthis is the biggest purse event on the Nation’s Cup tour - close to $855,000.  Well you know I started to get nervous.  As the week approached I received a call from an organizer to know if I was playing on both practise days and if I was bringing a caddie or required one to be supplied.  Well the wheels did started to slip then.  Daily practise ensued as I dealt with some game flaws.  An emergency putting session was held with Todd Thomson CPGA Golf Doctor.  

The experience was excilerating as my named was called to the first tee my only thought being not to shank into the woods!  After a couple of holesI settled down and the event became a lot of fun.  Playing with these men who aspire to the highest level of the game inspires you to do better.  I was quite impressed with the planning that goes into a shot versus my method of hoping it gets there!  Since my job was only to improve on my pros score for the pro-am component of the event I was able to be a little riskier including on the 13th putting for an eagle by driving over the waste area.  Unfortunately Kent did not have a good first day and I knew we were out of the money.  On the 14th I blasted a fade shot around the corner out-driving the lot.  As I approached the ball I noticed the camera was on me - talk about pressure!  I made my approach to the green with a 9 iron leaving a 15 foot putt.  It was funny though as I made it to the green someone figured out I was a nobody and the camera immediately moved to the pros - my moment of glory on the golf channel!

That evening Scotia Provite Client Group hosted a dinner party at Thorlos in the Village at Blue.  150 guests attended for a wonderful meal and a chance to meet with Wayne Gretzky and his father Walter.   Money raised from this event goes to support Wayne’s family charity of helping disadvantaged kids play hockey - a most noble action.   I must say it was a most impressive day and evening.  

On the second day we played Lora Bay (my home club) and Kent was in better form.  It was a windy day and the course was long and fast.  Kent’s putter was letting him done again and I think I may have been a little too relaxed but we had some great holes and great deal of fun.  Kent missed the cut by one stroke but for his first Gretzky Classic I think he did well.  That evening a party was held by one of the major sponsors set as a New York night club in the BM Convention centre.  It was a great deal of fun although I did not dress in proper clubbing attire but instead in evening golfware. 

It was great to meet Wayne, Mark Napier, Cassy Campbell and others as well as experience of playing in such an event.  Thank you to Ed for inviting me, to Scotia Private Banking for hosting us and to the volunteers, Lora Bay and Georgian Bay Clubs for putting on a great event.  Next year if you get a chance please go watch this great event, support some impressive athletes and assist Wayne’s noble charity.  

Cheers, Bob

How the summer has changed from cold days of late June to warm sunny days of July.  The same can be said of the real estate.  Toronto Real Estate Market Watch notes that sales were up 28% from July 2008.  Of the 9,967 units sold in July the bulk were detached home at 48.2% and condo apartments at 23.7%. with a price break down as follows:

• $200-300,000    27.6%   of total sales
• $300-400,000    28.9%   of total sales
• $400-500,000    15.0%   of total sales
• $500-750,000    13.7%   of total sales
• 750-1,500,000   09.6%   of total sales

The bulk of sales activity 71.5% is still below $500,000 price threshold which suggests to me that first time buyers are still driving the market by taking advantage of lower interest rates and balanced home pricing.  One of the interesting components that the number of days a home is on the market is decreasing to the 30-35 days while the ratio of listings to unit sold is in the 60% range suggesting that if you list a property at it will be sold.   

CMHC has reported in their July report that new home starts in the GTA were down 44% from year early while down 60% in total from 2008.  The trend has continued in July with “The slight decline in July’s housing starts is mostly attributable to the volatile multiple starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Although July registered a decline, housing starts are expected to improve throughout 2009.”

Interest rates continue to stay low in the near term.  Scotia Capital Global Forecast Update reports that “We now expect the Bank of Canada to begin tightening monetary policy settings in the second quarter of next year. The benchmark overnight rate should end the year at 1.75%… moving 2.00% by the end of 2010.   Despite the future projections Mortgage rates continue to stay low across the board which is good news for buyers.   Current posted fixed-term rates for 5 years is running at 5.5-5.9% found on the Canoe with variable rate running as low as 2.55%.  It is interesting that RBC is offering a special at 4.44% for 5 year mortgage while Mary Adimidis of Scotiabank (416.436.0015) is offering special on a 5 year fixed rate at 4.55% and a 10 year fixed rate of 5.25%.  This rate differential suggests that you need to encourage your lender to give you their best deal.    

So what does this all mean.  If you are thinking of selling your home there is definite demand in the lower to mid range of the market.  The higher end of the market is showing life which is a good sign for a healthy market.  Will this market continue into the fall may depend on the strength of the economy and whether interest raes stay low.  Lower inventory at this point in time means that if you do wish to move up or out that the home in the mid price range will sell.  This is a great time to trade up as there is more flexibility in buying a larger more expensive home.  

Please pass on your comments and give me a call if you have any questions.

Resales  Well June turned out to be an interesting month with a dramatic increase in home sales across the board.  The Toronto Real Estate Board has reported that they were 10,955 sales in June versus 8,600 in June of 2008 with the average days on market falling to 33 days.   This is quite impressive growth in activity with a tell tale sign of a shift in the market being the number of active listings dropping 30% from June 2008.  With the ratio of unit sold/units available rising it pointing to a more active market for sellers and a move to a more balanced transaction market.

The Economy  There of course are other factors driving the market including some positive economic numbers and a stronger stock market suggesting that the worst of the crisis is behind us.  This last week at the G8 summit Prime Minister Harper  ”we don’t yet have a true recovery.” “But we have stability and we see some positive signs. It’s necessary that we stick with the program.”  The economy contracted in the first quarter but we are on track for -2.4% growth in 2009 and somewhere between 1-2% in 2010. “Improving global growth prospects, alongside extraordinarily low interest rates and government stimulus, are expected to allow Canada to return to positive growth in 2009, with a moderate recovery in 2010,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist at RBC.

Interest rates also played into the market in June as first time buyers in particular moved quickly to lock in mortgages and make those purchases on fear of rate hikes.  This may have been premature as The Bank of Canada has suggested that they are going to key rate low until next year and Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s senior economist, thinks another 5 to 10 basis-point decline in yields is likely. He agrees that might cause mortgage rates to dip but believes the discounts will be minimal and short-lived. “By the end of the year, we’ll start seeing rates rising.” At the end of the day though it will make little difference to a borrower.  Posted rates for a  5 year closed at TD Bank and Scotiabank is now 4.55%, while Scotiabank stills offers a 10 year fixed at 5.25%. 

Housing starts in the GTA were improving but still off of the base of previous years.   CMHC June Housing Start reports 24,000 starts with detached starts down 3.1% and multiple units up 15.6%.  “The June numbers provide evidence that residential construction activity is gradually improving,” said Shaun Hildebrans, CMHC’s Senior Market Analyst for the GTA.  However we are still well below the heady days of 2008.  The increase in condo construction may suggest this market will remain steady over the next few months.  The Hamilton area is still experiencing a significant slow down in detached homes sales. 

Who is Buying?  Again first time buyers appear to be driving the market.  In an interesting twist in who is buying homes in Canada Adrienne Warren, Senior Economist, Scotia Economics notes that  “Over time, immigrant families eventually make the move to home ownership, at rates similar to the Canadian-born population” and is now outpacing Canadian Born buyers.   This is good news for the housing market as the aging population and low birth rates are working against market expansion.

What does this Mean?  Well if you are a buyer the number of purchase options is shrinking and therefore your ability to dictate terms is reduced.  Yes - Is it a good time to buy as purchase prices are still down and the cost of money is still very low by historical standards.  If you are considering selling then it is also a good time to consider entering the market as inventory are down meaning less competition for your property.  Of course having your home ready to sell and priced correctly is still critical to success.

I am always happy to discuss your options with you.  Bob

Nestled north of Burlington Cedar Springs Rd is a charming course that I played yesterday.  The course was built in the early 60s by business entrepreneur Larry Bunkowsky.   Over the years the course has transformed to mark changes in the game by adding more water, sand as well as providing Gold tees to provided as solid golf challenge.  Rated 69 from the Blues this is a great course to play for the beginner and the seasoned golfer.  Wider fairway and reasonably trimmed rough allow golfers to novice golfers some freedom from disaster but strategically placed trees, traps and undulating greens force the pressure onto your short game (as they say drive for show and putt for $$)   Of course all of this hides the charm of Burlington Springs.  The ninth hole is a dog leg with water the length of the fairway which brings you back to the club house.  Standing on the tee box you are tempted to be adventurous however disastrous that may be!   The 15 and 16 holes are pure beauty where the majestic trees and century barn provide a feel of old Ontario.  Finish your game with a pint at Bunkers grill.

In this age of expensive and over challenging golf courses this course provide people with a pleasant golfing experience.  I shot 78 playing with my brother Rick yesterday and although I had many opportunities to get the birdie the greens did me in.   It should be noted that this course has produced some expectational golfers including Barb Bunkowsky LPGA star of the 80s and 90s.   To find out more information visit Burlington Springs or give Debbie O’Brian a call at 905.335.2922 for more information.

By the way there are some magnificent estate properties across the street some of which are looking for new owners - give me a Call!

The question is being asked of me as I do open houses and meet prospective buyers and sellers is this a good time to purchase real estate?   The question is dependent on how you look at your current situation.  Let first consider the current market components involved in making a decision.

Interest rates are historically low at the moment giving buyers an exceptional opportunity, especially to first time buyers.  For example a $300,000 3.9%/30 year fixed term 5 year mortgage you have a monthly payment of $1408 while $400,000 will cost you $1880 monthly.   Rates will start moving up next year (see my blog) This is allowing both first time buyers to purchase that starter home and people looking to trade up to a larger home or move into that kids free condo! 

Prices holding steady in 2009.  Current numbers from Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) for May show that sales were up 15% from April and slightly ahead of May 2008.  Average resale price is the GTA is $395,609 which slightly ahead of May 2008 while perhaps a better gauge the media price of sales is $337,000 slightly off 2008.   Year to date we are behind 16% from 2008 but considering the slow start to the year this appears positive. 

Active listing are trending down this year as people are tending to stay out of the market pending better economic times.   This does mean that with fewer properties on the market that prices holding up better than we expected.

The recession although causing considerable pain is not effected the consumer as it has done in the USA.  A recent survey in the National Post shows that consumer confidence although down is still holding up in Ontario.  Of course certain communities are being hit hard where auto manufacturing plays a big role in the local economy.

Days homes are on the market is trending lower to approximately 35 days (depend on district) which re-confirms that properties are turning over.  This means that if you list a property at the right price for location and condition that it will sell.

So is this a good time to buy and sell real estate?  With properties values holding and money at historically low interest rates if you are a first time buyer then there is no better time to jump into the market.  If you are planning to buy a bigger home than I suggest it is also a great time to make the move.   If you are planning to sell the family home then you can feel comfortable that you will get a fair price for you property.   Finally with the retreat of the Americans from the vacation property market there are good deals to be had in Collingwood and cottage country.

Please let me know your thoughts or give me a call.   Bob

Well we have survived the end of the world and more importantly our homes still have value.  That value may depend on the type of home you have, location and price point.  The entry of first time buyers into the housing market this spring is helping with sales activities.  This is being fueled by record low mortgage rates and what I believe is a better feeling about their economic future than compared to our cousins in the USA - it is still a mess down there (but a great time to buy a vacation or snow bird property.

A number of factors are coming into play with mortgage rates.  As government treasury bonds yield is on the rise (hence costing the feds more to borrow) suggesting that we will be moving to higher rates next year.  Canadian Mortgage Trends highlights that the banker acceptance yield is remaining low which is helping keep short term rates down.  Tridelta Financial [NP May 21] says it makes sense to set up a variable rate mortgage as long as you can ensure you can later convert to fixed rates at the best available broker rate. This means that some planning is involved with your mortgage renewal.  It  is best to speak to your banker, financial planner or mortgage broker about the best product but remember rates will being moving up next year.

 With this new economic and lending outlook the banks are offering some interesting products to help you manage your mortgage and your equity.  The readvanceable mortgage provides you a method as you pay down your equity to make it available as a line of credit.  The Scotiabank STEPproduct provides this option and it may be worth looking into if you need to renovations or are considering the purchase of other assets. 

“Conditions in the resale housing market have improved markedly this Spring,” according to TREB PresidentMaureen O’Neill. “Home purchases have increased as households have taken advantage of low interest rates and slightly lower home prices.”  The average price for April transactions was $385,641 – down three per cent from last year.   We are awaiting the numbers for May and I will forward them to you but generally the trend continues of smaller and cheaper properties selling well, while larger properties taking longer to sell.  It is still a buyers market although listings are down 30% in April but there are some anomalies.   New numbers coming out suggest ”Toronto has now dropped by more than 10% since its peak in August of 2008,” says Simon Cote, managing director, property derivatives, National Bank of Canada was quoted in the Saturday National Post.  Overall Canadian home prices in March declined 5.8% from a year earlier and I will need to see with the pending TREB numbers if the decrease effects areas such as Mississauga, Markham and Oakville in the same manner.  Just remember when you are selling you are also buying so can be a good market for both buyer and seller!

Finally April Housing starts will be more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year from over 200,000 over the past seven years.  “The decrease in April’s housing starts is partly attributable to the volatile multiple starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Most of the decline has occurred in the condominium segment in Ontario.” 

To give you an idea of the market, In May I sold a home in east Oakville with five offers received.  The home was listed at $449,000 and most of the buyers were first time into the market or owned a smaller property.  This highlighted to me the effects of lower interest rates on the market.  Currently a 5 year mortgage at 3.9% for $300,000 will cost you to carry it will cost you $1560 per month while $400,000 will cost you only $2,081 per month.  It may be worthwhile considering moving up, have your children buy their first home or buy that investment property!

I have been involved in selling a charming condo unit 410 part of Canyon Creek at 1700 The Collegeway in Mississauga over the past few weeks.  The building is part of a complex of lifestyle and retirement towers and town-homes in one of the nicer communities in Mississauga.  The people coming to view the property are generally over 50 and plan or have retired.  They are looking for a lifestyle property to provide them with more freedom and to get away from managing a larger home.  There are many questions that have come up in discussion but I thought that I would highlight a few for you

The size of the unit has created some concern.  Moving from a detached home to a 1300 sq ft. condo takes some imagination but you need to think about why you want out of the family home.  Consider the purchase of condo size furniture and a flat screen television to allow for a completely different layout, look and feel.

I would like a more modern layout.  With the move to great rooms and the decline of formal entertaining is a valid criteria for purchase but consider what can be done with a resale unit.  Did you know that many walls in a condo can be easily removed at little cost.  Foe example in unit 410 you can easily remove the wall separating the kitchen from the living room, create an island eating area to create the modern great room. All you need is a designer or contractor and approval from the property manager which can be part of the purchase process.  Consider the renovtion costs in your offer price.

The Condo fees are high.  In the case of this unit they are $770 per month but you must consider what you get for that price.  Indoor pool, spa, sauna, meeting facilities, workout facilities, 24 hour security and beautifully maintained grounds.  As well part of the fee goes to a reserve fund that help cover future maintanence costs - in other words you pay today for wear and tear on the building.   Think of it this way, a new roof on your home may cost $5000 every 20 years.  With a reserve fund you pay $250 a year towards its replacement.  When you buy the unit the seller has paid his portion of the replacement cost. 

Shopping is not outside the door.  Living in a condo is a trade off.  If you want the green space, being in touch with nature and a quiet home likely you will need to travel by car or bus to shop.  If you want to be near the action and have the convenience of the store next door then it becomes a lifestyle choice. 

I worry about my budget.  Budgets are a of significant issue for people nearing retirement.  The current economic down-turn has people wondering if they are secure.   Again your budget is critical to understanding the true costs of ownership.  One thing with a condo corp is that you costs are generally fixed with few hidden surprises.   I suggest to people that they review their up and down costs of home ownership versus the managed costs of a condo.  I think they will find them comparable. Consider getting help from your bank, investment councillor or accountant.  Scotia Private Banking for example offer services for planning, investment and managing your estate. 

If you have any additional comments please let me know as my goal is to help you find the right property as part of your right-lifeing goals.

My air conditioner finally needed to be put to rest after 22 years of faithful service.  This Keep Rite unit came from my Dad’s company and in-fact we installed it together.  I remember it as a challenge because neither one of us had the expertise.  When I had the furnace replace two years ago the installer asked me who did the air install as control wiring was a mess.  Of course I passed on knowledge of the culprits.   So now the home needed a new system.  I called up David from Applewood Heating and Air Conditioning who provided the furnace.  I trust David because he knows his business and takes me through the options.  Of course how did I know the options are now so complicated.

David explained that the a new system with a SEER 13 (is an energy efficiency rating)  is the base line he will sell me with Freon coolent.  He then went on to explain that an energy star rated system is SEER 14 and that I can get that with Puron (which I understand is less harmful should it escape into the environment).  Finally a unit with a SEER 15 is the most efficient and environmentally friendly model sold by Carrier.  Of course I wanted to do the right thing so I said I should probably go for the top of the line.  David then outlined some programs by the provincial and federal government to encourage energy efficient purchases.  There are rebates for OPG for buying energy star, Carrier has a rebate and finally their is a tax credit for improving your home but the big one comes from doing an energy audit (something I will go into with another blog entry).  This sounded good until we started doing the math.  I needed to put $300 out for the audit in which Ontario would rebate me $150.  I would then need to act on the recommendations and at some point in the future (18 months) I would receive some compensation for my costs.  

Being a practical person I asked the simply question of what is the bottom line.  The answer may surprise you.  With the rebates and the cost of unit, new piping and installation I was looking at $4800 for the unit plus repairs to the finished basement.  Rebates we estimated at $900 hard saving for a final cost of $3900 (protential for more from the audit).   Going with a conventional system would cost $2800, use existing piping and no repairs required to the basement.  So the question I asked was how much would I save on my electrical bill a cooling season with current energy prices.  The answer was $35-40.  I let you guess my decision.

Based on this exercise I have started to wonder about who is really benefitting from climate change?  When I go into Home Depot they are encouraging to replace windows, door, light fixtures but at what cost, what savings and what will it do to the value to your home?  Lawrance Soloman of Energy Probe wrote  Enron’s other secret in the National Post suggests that companies have a big economic interest in Climate Change.  I am therefore going to start exploring GREEN OPTIONS for your home and try to get to the true benefit to you the home owner?   You can then make the decision based on dollars and the environment.  In doing so I look forward to your comments and I will do my best to get to true value to your home.  

On Thursday I had an early game at Cross Winds Golf Course which is on Guelph Line just north of Lowville and about 15 minutes north of Burlington.  This is a challenging and scenic 18 hole course.  Playing from the Blue tees it provides some interesting challenges to a golfer but nothing that is insurmountable.  It does live up to its name as the wind was blowing from the west making the par 5 13th hole seem like a par 8.  Of there is an advantage coming back with the wind!   It is a very walkable course that is relatively flat and quite scenic.  The greens are interesting although they were inconsistent as some had been over-seeded that day.   I will use this as an excuse for my 5, 3 putt greens and my less than stellar 84. 

This course is a good trade off between a public and private facility.  I paid $48 to play which is very reasonable for a well maintained course.  The course location allows it to serve Burlington, Milton, Mississauga and Oakville which is something to think about if you are looking for a new home in the west end.  If you like golf you should give Cross Winds a go!

I was working an open house yesterday that I have listed at 4060 Seebring Cr., in West Erin Mills, Mississauga.  This is a beautiful home on a mature street and as people were stopping to go through the home questions were asked of the neighbourhood.  I thought I would share with you the Top 10 reasons to live on Seebring that I shared with my visitors. 

1. The neighbourhood is 22 years old, with mature trees, yards that have been landscaped over the years and a street-scape that makes you feel like you are home. 
2. The homes are award winning designs from Great Gulf Homes.  Great Gulf represented a new style of home construction in the 80’s with shared family rooms and kitchens (now we call them great rooms),  large windows and green house kitchen areas.  The homes were designed with unique open spaces, large master bedrooms with a sitting area and 4-5 piece en-suite.  The designs are modern and are just as nice today as 20 years ago.
3. Schools are nearby including both Public and Catholic Boards Elementary Schools within a short walk of Seebring.  For kids in the Catholic Board a new Loyola High School is being build within 6 blocks of Seebring. 
4. Their is a pride of ownership on Seebring Crescent.  People are investing in their has they age including renovating bathrooms, adding new flooring, replacing the kitchen and creating media rooms in the basement.
5. This is a family street.  I like to walk my dogs and yesterday we walked into a bunch of youngsters with their Dads (and a couple of Moms) playing for the Stanley Cup in a ball Hockey tourney!   The street is transforming from older to younger providing a great mix!
6. Getting to where you need to get to is easy with the quick access to the 403, 407 & QEW.   GO service is 10-15 minute drive to Clarkson with a 13 minute express train you can be at you office in 45 minutes!
7. Lots of shopping nearby including Erin Mills Town Centre, Canadian Tire, Home Depot, Costco and many more.  There is also many chain restaurants as well as some exception dining locations within minutes of Seebring.
8. Mississauga is a great place to live.  Low taxes, lots of parks and trails.  Baseball, soccer and hockey facilities within walking distance of Seebring Cr.  Public golfing within a 10 minute drive at Royal Ontario or Pipers Heath.
9. Credit Valley Hospital is a 5 minutes way.
10. Finally, Seebring Cr. commands the some of the highest prices in the area.  Now that’s something to think about!